This is what the OCD said about The Big One, a large-magnitude earthquake.
THE BIG ONE – Office of Civil Defense administrator Usec. Ariel Nepomuceno says Luzon must be ready for this eventuality.
The 7.7-magnitude earthquake that affected Myanmar and Thailand was a chilling reminder of threats that come with living within the “Pacific Ring of Fire.”
(17th century St. Catherine Church in Porac Collapsed Following A Powerful Earthquake On April 22, 2019)
This also served as a reminder of “The Big One” or the possible magnitude 7.2 earthquake if the West Valley Fault moves. Office of Civil Defense administrator Usec. Ariel Nepomuceno shared that, based on studies, this fault moves every 400 years, and as per the data, it is up again to make another movement.
“We are not creating panic, we are trying to raise awareness and concern. Ang maaring mamatay kaagad, there’s no better way of saying it, 30,000 to 52,000,” he said. He added that over a hundred thousand will be injured, which can overwhelm the health systems of the country.
The entire Luzon will move, and he stressed that stronger shaking will occur in Central Luzon and Calabarzon.
How strong can this earthquake be?
According to the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) report Risk Analysis Project in 2013, the strong shaking can result in the following:
- 31,000 human fatalities
- 14,000 people with very serious injuries
- 112,000 cases of serious injury
- 385,000 slightly injured
- total floor area of 88,142,000 square meters will be completely collapsed
- 172,924,000 square meters will experience “slight to extensive damage”
- estimated economic loss of around PHP 2.269 trillion
According to the World Risk Report released in September 2024, for the third consecutive year, the Philippines is still at the top of the list of countries at most risk for extreme natural events and climatic threats.
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