The country’s weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is currently monitoring a growing tropical storm in the Pacific that already threatens Guam and may come near the Philippines.
The tropical storm (international name: In-Fa) might enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility but there is also a high chance that it may recurve to the open sea before it reaches the country’s borders. The main reason why the tropical storm might not affect the Philippines was because of the strongest El Niño episode on record causing global weather havoc.
Jori Luiz, one of PAGASA’s senior forecaster, he noted that without El Niño, cyclones usually make landfall over Luzon or the Visayas during the last quarter of the year. The Pacific weather system is disrupted by El Nino and so many cyclones during El Nino recurve.
PAGASA stated that the prevailing high pressure area in the East Philippine Sea would determine whether the cyclone will hit land after all.
Once the tropical cyclone In-Fa hits the Philippines, it will only be the 13th cyclone to hit the country this year 2015, which is considered one of the lowest so far, when compared to an average of 18 to 20 cyclones annually.