The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) through Director Renato Solidum explained the timing of the feared 7.2 magnitude earthquake caused by a movement of the West Valley Fault traversing Metro Manila and may strike any time soon based on historical data gatherd by the Filipino geoscientists.
According to Phivolcs, it has been 357 years since the 90-kilometer fault system shifted, reiterating the agency’s warning issued back in 2013. Phivolcs explained that the West Valley Fault moves every 400 to 600 years and the last movement of the West Valley Fault was back the year 1658 which is 357 years ago.
Phivolcs also compared the 7.8 earthquake that recently claimed thousands of lives in Nepal was expected to strike sooner or later. The Nepal earthquake last April 25 was discovered by geoscientists a few years ago. According to Nepal counterpart of Phivolcs, the earthquake in Nepal appears every 750 years, plus or minus.
The last time the Nepal fault system moves was way back the year 1344, the earthquake that hit Nepal was already long overdue.
Director Solidum also warned that the intense ground shaking to be generated by the West Valley Fault’s movement will damage buildings that may lead to loss of lives.
The Phivolcs chief was quoted as saying “Ang lindol, magpapagalaw ng lupa, pero ang building, kung matututumba o masisisira or magko-collapse, depende ‘yan kung gaano kaganda ang disenyo,” he said, adding that materials used for the construction of the building will also determine its vulnerability.
Meanwhile according to Jerry Velasquez, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction regional coordinator explained on his Facebook page that the magnitude 7.2 earthquake is “not a prediction over a specified time, rather it is the estimated largest credible earthquake that can be generated by movement of the West Valley Fault System.