The Philippine weather bureau, PAGASA, confirmed that the latest weather disturbance, Bagyong Ruby (international name Hagupit) is set to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between Thursday and Friday, December 4-5, 2014. PAGASA noted also that it will threaten the country but also give a possible scenario for Bagyong Ruby’s track.
According to PAGASA forecaster Buddy Javier, Tropical Storm Hagupit was headed towards the eastern portion of the country, packing maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts of up to 90 kph as of 4:00 AM Tuesday.
PAGASA also give a possible scenario for Bagyong Ruby, the more likely scenario is for the storm to skirt the Philippines and move towards Japan due to the presence of the anti-cyclone or the high pressure area northeast of the country and the strengthening of the northeast monsoon (amihan), which brings the cold winds that are unfavorable for a weather disturbance.
The state weather bureau, PAGASA, explained further that a weather disturbance or a typhoon needs at least 26 degrees Celsius of sea surface temperature for it to grow stronger. Bagyong Ruby could develop into a typhoon but not as strong as Yolanda because of the cold climate right now in the country, unlike during the Yolanda disaster that happened during the early part of November last year.
The second scenario for Bagyong Ruby is that it will most part of the Visayas Region but the most likely scenario is for the storm to re-curve towards Japan and avoid hitting the Philippine landmass due to the High Pressure Area.
According to JTWC forecasts Bagyong Ruby (Hagupit) is packing a 240 kph (130 knots) by December 6, 2014 at around 8:00 AM, when it is nearer to the Philippines.
